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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to JAX 6, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-20-C.Sutton.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model