4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

DAL
33.3%
ATL
66.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.214 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.224 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.077 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
ATL 26
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DAL

Tavon Austin WR Out Groin
Taco Charlton DE Out Shoulder
David Irving DE Out Ankle
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Daniel Ross DT Out Calf
Antwaun Woods DT Doubtful Concussion
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Knee
Zack Martin G Questionable Knee
Joe Thomas LB Questionable Foot
Connor Williams G Questionable Knee

ATL

Deion Jones LB Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 22
–
ATL 19

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:00 FG DAL (3:00) 2-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 14:56 FG ATL (14:56) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. DAL 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 00:34 FG ATL (:34) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. DAL 3 – ATL 6
  • Q3 10:20 FG DAL (10:20) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – ATL 6
  • Q3 07:16 FG ATL (7:16) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. DAL 6 – ATL 9
  • Q4 14:23 TD DAL (14:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – ATL 9
  • Q4 12:33 TD DAL (12:33) 21-E.Elliott right guard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 18 – ATL 9
  • Q4 08:28 FG ATL (8:28) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. DAL 19 – ATL 12
  • Q4 01:59 TD ATL (1:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – ATL 18
  • Q4 00:03 FG DAL (:03) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 22 – ATL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 19 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 38%

    (10:50) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to DAL 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (3:00) 2-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 88%

    (14:56) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:59) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at ATL 44 for 13 yards (14-L.Lenoir).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 63%

    (8:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 27 yards to DAL 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:51) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to ATL 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 40 for 2 yards (57-D.Wilson).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%

    (:34) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 74%

    (10:20) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 68%

    (7:16) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.85 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (8:28) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:12) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to ATL 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at ATL 17 for 1 yard (35-K.Frazier). PENALTY on DAL-14-L.Lenoir, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 17.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 87%

    (:03) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.