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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 2-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP