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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.97 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP