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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.85 EP