Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(4:51) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to ATL 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 40 for 2 yards (57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.49 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model