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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to DAL 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model