4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 37

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 27 yards to DAL 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP