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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Atlanta Falcons 19

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.34 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model