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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CAR
52.2%
DET
47.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR on 3 more days rest than DET

Predicted Final Score

CAR 25
–
DET 23
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CAR

Torrey Smith WR Out Knee

DET

Marvin Jones WR Out Knee
Michael Roberts TE Out Shoulder
A'Shawn Robinson DT Out Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 19
–
DET 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:31 TD CAR (9:31) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 02:42 TD DET (2:42) 33-K.Johnson left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DET 6
  • Q2 00:42 FG DET (:42) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 7 – DET 10
  • Q3 03:51 FG DET (3:51) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 7 – DET 13
  • Q4 09:29 TD CAR (9:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – DET 13
  • Q4 05:19 TD DET (5:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. CAR 13 – DET 19
  • Q4 01:14 TD CAR (1:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 12-D.Moore for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – DET 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to DET 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:00) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to CAR 2, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-32-T.Wilson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (9:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:54) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 25 for -1 yards (53-T.Bates).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to DET 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 66%

    (:42) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

    (:07) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 49%

    (13:06) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to CAR 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-35-M.Killebrew.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (9:16) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (3:51) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to DET 38, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Jones to DET 48 for 10 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 42-C.Jones).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 44%

    (14:03) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to CAR 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:37) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to DET 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:58) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CAR 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.