4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 57

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to CAR 2, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-32-T.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model