Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 13

(:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to DET 38, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Jones to DET 48 for 10 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model