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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 73

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 25 for -1 yards (53-T.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model