Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 13 – Detroit Lions 20

(4:37) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to DET 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model