Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 77

Detroit Lions 20 – Carolina Panthers 13

(2:58) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CAR 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.11 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model