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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP