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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model