Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- DET defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- DET offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- SEA on 7 more days rest than DET
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.140 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SEA offense: -0.001 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 8
SEA
DET
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 02:24 TD DET (2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 11-M.Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – DET 6
- Q2 14:23 TD SEA (14:23) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DET 7
- Q2 12:47 TD SEA (12:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 83-D.Moore for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – DET 7
- Q2 02:34 TD SEA (2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-E.Dickson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – DET 7
- Q4 14:29 TD SEA (14:29) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – DET 7
- Q4 10:47 TD DET (10:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 28 – DET 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DET 18, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-59-J.Martin. PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DET 18.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 34%
(9:53) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:25) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-45-Ch.Washington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(12:34) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for 10 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(7:44) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 81-N.Vannett [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on SEA-81-N.Vannett, Illegal Touch Pass, 0 yards, enforced at DET 1.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%
(3:23) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 72%
(8:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to DET 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-B.Powell to DET 21 for 5 yards (36-A.King).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(4:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to DET 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-B.Powell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 97 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EPp(convert) 42%
(2:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson right end to SEA 12 for 9 yards (34-C.LeBlanc).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to DET 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-B.Powell to DET 22 for 3 yards (36-A.King).
See the full breakdown →
