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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to DET 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model