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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to DET 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-B.Powell to DET 21 for 5 yards (36-A.King).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP