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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 1

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 81-N.Vannett [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on SEA-81-N.Vannett, Illegal Touch Pass, 0 yards, enforced at DET 1.

The Three Options

GO +3.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model