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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 49

Detroit Lions 7 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP