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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 61

Detroit Lions 7 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-45-Ch.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model