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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to DET 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-B.Powell to DET 22 for 3 yards (36-A.King).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.01 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -1.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 36, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model