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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYJ
29.1%
CHI
70.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.002 vs Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.085 EPA/dropback
  • Wind 18 mph

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 16
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 7 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYJ

Quincy Enunwa WR Out Ankle
Robby Anderson WR Doubtful Ankle
Trumaine Johnson CB Doubtful Quadricep
Spencer Long C Questionable Knee
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Back
Morris Claiborne CB Questionable Shoulder
Marcus Maye S Questionable Thumb
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Foot

CHI

Eric Kush G Out Neck
Khalil Mack LB Questionable Ankle
Allen Robinson WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 10
–
CHI 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:35 TD CHI (5:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 12:03 FG NYJ (12:03) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – CHI 7
  • Q3 07:19 TD CHI (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 17-A.Miller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – CHI 13
  • Q4 15:00 FG CHI (15:00) 1-C.Parkey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYJ 3 – CHI 17
  • Q4 11:16 TD NYJ (11:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 89-C.Herndon for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – CHI 17
  • Q4 07:11 TD CHI (7:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to CHI 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 85%

    (8:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 25 for 10 yards (83-E.Tomlinson). PENALTY on CHI-26-D.Bush, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 27%

    (1:12) 40-T.Cannon left guard to CHI 43 for 3 yards (98-B.Nichols).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 82%

    (12:03) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 22%

    (8:27) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:32) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:30) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to NYJ 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 35 for 9 yards (84-B.Braunecker). PENALTY on NYJ-39-I.Campbell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 34.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to CHI 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-51-B.Copeland.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to CHI 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at NYJ 47 for 8 yards.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 22%

    (12:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to CHI 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-46-N.Hewitt.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to CHI 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at 50 for 21 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 84%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky left end pushed ob at NYJ 22 for 1 yard (54-A.Williamson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 1-C.Parkey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:37) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 15, and recovers at CHI 13. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 13 for no gain (40-T.Cannon).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to NYJ 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.