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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 48

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model