Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 63

New York Jets 10 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 15, and recovers at CHI 13. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 13 for no gain (40-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model