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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 22

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model