Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Jets 3 – Chicago Bears 14

(5:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to CHI 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at 50 for 21 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model