Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 25 for 10 yards (83-E.Tomlinson). PENALTY on CHI-26-D.Bush, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model