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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 85

New York Jets 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to CHI 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-46-N.Hewitt.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model