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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 80

New York Jets 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to CHI 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at NYJ 47 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model