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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Monday 2018-10-15 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SF
44.3%
GB
55.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • C.J. Beathard (SF): -0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
GB 24
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Dante Pettis WR Out Knee
Trent Taylor WR Doubtful Back
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Illness
Matt Breida RB Questionable Shoulder
Pierre Garcon WR Questionable Shoulder
George Kittle TE Questionable Knee
Mike Person G Questionable Knee
Weston Richburg C Questionable Knee
Joe Staley T Questionable Knee

GB

Jason Spriggs T Questionable Ankle
Justin McCray G Questionable Shoulder
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Groin
Geronimo Allison WR Questionable Hamstring
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Hamstring
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Knee
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Jermaine Whitehead S Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 30
–
GB 33

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:04 TD SF (11:04) 22-M.Breida up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 09:20 TD GB (9:20) 88-T.Montgomery left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – GB 6
  • Q1 07:42 FG GB (7:42) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. SF 7 – GB 10
  • Q1 02:02 TD GB (2:02) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – GB 16
  • Q1 00:36 TD SF (:36) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle to 11-M.Goodwin for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – GB 17
  • Q2 07:38 FG GB (7:38) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. SF 14 – GB 20
  • Q2 06:13 TD SF (6:13) (No Huddle) 3-C.Beathard pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – GB 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG SF (:04) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 24 – GB 20
  • Q3 11:21 FG GB (11:21) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. SF 24 – GB 23
  • Q3 07:04 FG SF (7:04) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 27 – GB 23
  • Q4 13:12 FG SF (13:12) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 30 – GB 23
  • Q4 02:00 TD GB (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – GB 29
  • Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. SF 30 – GB 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (7:42) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to GB 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%

    (12:27) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 58%

    (9:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to SF 32 for 6 yards (56-R.Foster).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (7:38) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:15) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SF 40, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James ran ob at SF 40 for no gain (28-T.Brown). Penalty on GB-93-R.Gilbert, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%

    (:04) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%

    (11:21) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 83%

    (7:04) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:27) 6-J.Scott punts 36 yards to SF 18, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 86%

    (13:12) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (7:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (24-K.Williams).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to GB 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-T.Williams to GB 48 for 6 yards (27-A.Colbert).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 19 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:13) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SF 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-R.James.