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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP