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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model