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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 23 – San Francisco 49ers 30

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SF 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.69 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model