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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model