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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 23 – San Francisco 49ers 30

What Actually Happened

(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (24-K.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model