Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 20 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SF 40, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James ran ob at SF 40 for no gain (28-T.Brown). Penalty on GB-93-R.Gilbert, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model