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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 33

Green Bay Packers 20 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model