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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

JAX
52.3%
DAL
47.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.170 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
DAL 20
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

JAX

Leonard Fournette RB Out Hamstring
D.J. Hayden CB Out Toe
Tre Herndon CB Out Hamstring
Carson Tinker LS Out Knee
Josh Wells T Out Groin
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Knee

DAL

Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Joe Thomas LB Out Foot
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Ankle
Brice Butler WR Questionable Groin
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Knee
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Shoulder
Deonte Thompson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 7
–
DAL 40

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 FG DAL (8:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 03:52 TD DAL (3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DAL 9
  • Q2 09:34 TD DAL (9:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DAL 16
  • Q2 00:47 TD DAL (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DAL 23
  • Q3 07:39 TD JAX (7:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DAL 24
  • Q3 03:09 FG DAL (3:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 7 – DAL 27
  • Q3 01:22 FG DAL (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 7 – DAL 30
  • Q4 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – DAL 36
  • Q4 07:12 FG DAL (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 7 – DAL 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:06) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Austin to DAL 17 for 3 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (8:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:21) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to DAL 42, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-45-M.Overton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 42.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 56%

    (14:23) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 24 yards to DAL 16, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:02) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to DAL 22, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 64%

    (2:46) 21-E.Elliott right guard to JAX 35 for 2 yards (48-L.Jacobs).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to JAX 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-49-J.Olawale.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:55) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to DAL 24, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 30 for 6 yards (26-J.Wilson).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:12) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to JAX 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 26 for no gain. Lateral to 17-D.Chark to JAX 18 for -8 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (3:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 36%

    (11:52) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Moncrief (31-B.Jones).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 49%

    (9:24) 21-E.Elliott right guard to JAX 41 for 2 yards (99-M.Dareus).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 64%

    (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:36) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:35) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to JAX 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 36 for 6 yards (55-L.Vander Esch; 35-K.Frazier).