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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model