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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Austin to DAL 17 for 3 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP