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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.59 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model