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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 24 yards to DAL 16, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model