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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to DAL 22, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.02 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model