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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to JAX 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-49-J.Olawale.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP