Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to JAX 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 26 for no gain. Lateral to 17-D.Chark to JAX 18 for -8 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model