4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR
44.6%
WAS
55.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CAR

Damiere Byrd WR Out Ankle
Jared Norris LB Out Toe
Andre Smith LB Out Hamstring
Marquis Haynes DE Out Not Injury Related
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Foot

WAS

Troy Apke S Out Hamstring
Shawn Lauvao G Doubtful Calf
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Ankle
Zach Vigil LB Questionable Thigh
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Heel
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Ankle
Paul Richardson WR Questionable Shoulder
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 17
–
WAS 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:26 TD WAS (10:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 03:07 TD WAS (3:07) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 05:35 FG WAS (5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 0 – WAS 17
  • Q2 03:11 TD CAR (3:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 17-D.Funchess for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – WAS 17
  • Q3 05:12 FG CAR (5:12) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 9 – WAS 17
  • Q4 12:46 FG WAS (12:46) 3-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 9 – WAS 20
  • Q4 08:36 TD CAR (8:36) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 11-T.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 15 – WAS 20
  • Q4 03:18 FG WAS (3:18) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 17 – WAS 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (11:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 22 for 1 yard (51-S.Hamilton, 56-Z.Vigil). FUMBLES (51-S.Hamilton), RECOVERED by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle at CAR 22.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to WAS 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (8:14) 11-A.Smith left guard to WAS 47 for 2 yards (58-T.Davis). QB sneak

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:10) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to CAR 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-D.Moore. PENALTY on CAR-23-J.Hawkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%

    (1:33) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-83-B.Quick.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to CAR 43, Center-44-J.Jansen. 37-G.Stroman to CAR 33 for 10 yards (10-C.Samuel).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 59%

    (:26) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to CAR 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-32-S.Perine. PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CAR 6.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 61%

    (10:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 86-J.Reed (58-T.Davis). WAS-75-B.Scherff was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (5:12) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 61%

    (12:46) 3-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (3:18) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.