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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 55

Washington Commanders 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 11-A.Smith left guard to WAS 47 for 2 yards (58-T.Davis). QB sneak

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.92 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model